Data entry keyers
Data & Admin
criticalBLS projects employment falling from 141,600 (2024) to 104,900 (2034), a -25.9% change — a loss of 36,700 jobs.
Automated: Transcribing values from forms, invoices and scanned documents into databases — replaced by OCR plus large language model extraction that reads unstructured documents directly.
What survives
Exception handling, validating low-confidence extractions, and regulated data domains (clinical trials, court records) where an auditable human sign-off is required.
Window: Accelerated sharply from 2023 as LLM document extraction became commodity; BLS window 2024–2034
Entry-level / new-graduate software engineers
Software
criticalSignalFire's 2026 State of Tech Talent report finds new-grad hiring down roughly 65% at the 'Tech Majors' and about 76% at early-stage startups versus a 2019 baseline. Separately, front-end engineer share of roles fell about 25% since ChatGPT's launch while AI/ML engineer share rose 39%.
Automated: The junior tasks that used to justify a first hire — boilerplate code, unit tests, bug triage, simple CRUD features — now produced by coding assistants under a senior engineer's supervision.
What survives
SignalFire's read is that junior roles were cut for cost while experienced engineers became more valuable as AI leverage; the surviving entry path runs through AI/ML and research engineering rather than generalist front-end work.
Window: 2019 baseline vs 2025 hiring; sharpest fall after late 2022
Switchboard operators, including answering service
Customer Support
criticalBLS projects employment falling from 36,600 (2024) to 27,000 (2034), a -26.3% change.
Automated: Inbound call answering and transfer, after-hours message taking — absorbed by cloud PBX systems and AI voice agents.
What survives
Small-practice medical answering services and legal intake where callers are distressed or the intake is regulated.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Telemarketers
Customer Support
criticalBLS projects employment falling from 67,400 (2024) to 52,500 (2034), a -22.1% change — a loss of 14,900 jobs.
Automated: Outbound cold-call scripts, lead qualification and objection handling — now performed by synthetic-voice AI agents at a fraction of per-call cost.
What survives
High-value complex B2B sales, relationship selling, and regulated financial products where disclosure rules require a licensed human.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Telephone operators
Customer Support
criticalBLS projects employment falling from 4,000 (2024) to 2,900 (2034), a -27.5% change.
Automated: Call routing, directory lookup and message relay — replaced by automated attendants, voice IVR and conversational speech recognition.
What survives
Emergency dispatch, relay services for deaf and hard-of-hearing callers, and hospital switchboards where misrouting carries clinical risk.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034, continuing a multi-decade decline
Word processors and typists
Data & Admin
criticalBLS projects employment falling from 40,000 (2024) to 25,600 (2034), a -36.1% change — the single steepest decline of any US occupation in the 2024–2034 projections.
Automated: Manual document keying, formatting and transcription of dictated or handwritten copy — now handled by speech-to-text, autocomplete and generative drafting inside standard office software.
What survives
Residual demand in legal, medical and government settings requiring certified accuracy and chain-of-custody on documents; survivors migrate into records management and document-control roles.
Window: Long decline since the 1990s; BLS projection window 2024–2034
Bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks
Finance
endangeredBLS projects employment falling from 1,613,400 (2024) to 1,519,100 (2034), a -6% change and a net loss of 94,300 positions. BLS notes 'software innovations have automated many of the tasks performed by' these workers.
Automated: Transaction coding, ledger reconciliation and invoice matching — automated by cloud accounting platforms with AI categorisation and bank-feed matching.
What survives
BLS expects the role to become 'more analytical and advisory'; about 170,000 annual openings persist from replacement demand.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
BLS projects a -10% change 2024–2034, a loss of 313,600 positions from about 3.16 million jobs. McKinsey separately projects a 630,000 decline in cashier demand by 2030. WEF ranks cashiers among the fastest-declining roles globally.
Automated: Scanning, tendering and bagging — displaced by self-checkout, computer-vision 'just walk out' systems and the shift to online sales.
What survives
Age-restricted sales, theft intervention, and customer-experience-led retail formats; roughly 542,600 openings a year still occur from turnover alone.
Window: BLS window 2024–2034; McKinsey to 2030
Computer programmers
Software
endangeredBLS projects employment falling from 121,200 (2024) to 113,900 (2034), a -6% change. BLS states companies are expected to 'leverage technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), to automate repetitive programming tasks.'
Automated: Writing code to someone else's specification — repetitive implementation work now generated by coding assistants, with higher-skilled work shifting to software developers.
What survives
Legacy-system maintenance (COBOL, embedded firmware), and migration into the software developer role, which BLS projects growing 16%.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Customer service representatives
Customer Support
endangeredBLS projects employment falling from 2,814,000 (2024) to 2,660,300 (2034), a -5% change and a loss of 153,700 jobs. McKinsey projects customer service and sales declining by roughly 2.0 million jobs by 2030. Stanford's Canaries research names customer service as one of two flagship case studies of entry-level displacement.
Automated: Tier-1 ticket handling — order status, returns, password resets, FAQ answers — now resolved end-to-end by AI chat and voice agents.
What survives
BLS notes companies keep in-house centres 'for complex inquiries such as refunding accounts or confirming insurance coverage.' Klarna publicly reversed a 700-agent AI substitution and rehired humans. Roughly 341,700 annual openings persist.
Window: Sharp change from 2023; BLS window 2024–2034
Executive secretaries and executive administrative assistants
Data & Admin
endangeredBLS projects a -2% change 2024–2034, roughly 7,900 fewer positions; median pay $74,260 (2024). The wider secretaries and administrative assistants group is projected flat at 0%. WEF's Future of Jobs Report 2025 ranks administrative assistants among the fastest-declining roles, and McKinsey projects 710,000 fewer administrative assistant positions by 2030.
Automated: Scheduling, correspondence drafting, travel booking, meeting notes and expense filing — increasingly handled by AI assistants and self-service tools used by the executive directly.
What survives
Chief-of-staff style work — gatekeeping, political judgement, discretion with sensitive information, and physical office management. About 358,300 annual openings persist across the group.
Window: BLS window 2024–2034; McKinsey to 2030
BLS projects employment falling from 84,300 (2024) to 70,900 (2034), a -15.9% change.
Automated: Physical and digital filing, retrieval and indexing — replaced by full-text and semantic search over document stores.
What survives
Records retention governance, legal holds, and physical archive custody in courts and healthcare.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Insurance underwriters
Finance
endangeredBLS projects a -3% change 2024–2034, about 3,300 fewer positions from 127,000 jobs. BLS states: 'Automated underwriting software allows workers to process applications quickly, reducing the need for underwriters.'
Automated: Risk scoring and application review against rulebooks — automated underwriting software now clears standard applications without human touch.
What survives
Large commercial, specialty and catastrophe risk where exposure is novel and models have no precedent; model governance and pricing oversight.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Legal secretaries and administrative assistants
Legal
endangeredBLS projects a -6% change 2024–2034 for legal secretaries, eliminating roughly 9,000 jobs. Median pay $54,140 (2024). BLS notes AI systems and digital tools 'enable staff in many organizations to prepare their own documents without the help of secretaries.'
Automated: Drafting standard pleadings and correspondence, calendar and docket management, document formatting — increasingly handled by AI drafting inside practice-management software.
What survives
Court filing rules and e-filing compliance, client contact, and deadline liability management where a missed docket date is malpractice.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Medical transcriptionists
Healthcare Admin
endangeredBLS projects a -5% change 2024–2034, about 2,200 fewer positions from 43,900 jobs. BLS states: 'Technological advances in speech recognition and natural language processing allow physicians to document patient encounters in real time, reducing the need for medical transcriptionists.'
Automated: Typing up dictated clinical notes — replaced by ambient speech recognition and NLP that documents the encounter in real time.
What survives
Editing and quality-assurance of AI-generated notes, specialty vocabularies, and accented or multi-speaker dictation; the same tools raise output per remaining worker.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
News analysts, reporters and journalists
Media
endangeredBLS projects a -4% change 2024–2034, about 1,900 fewer jobs from 49,300 positions, citing 'declining advertising revenue in radio, newspapers, and television' and consolidation among news organisations.
Automated: Commodity news production — earnings summaries, sports recaps, aggregation and rewrites — plus the AI-driven collapse in referral traffic that funded newsrooms.
What survives
Original reporting, source cultivation, investigative work and on-the-ground presence — none of which AI can source. Median pay $60,280 with a top decile above $162,000, indicating a widening barbell.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Office machine operators
Data & Admin
endangeredBLS projects employment falling from 25,500 (2024) to 21,600 (2034), a -15.2% change.
Automated: Operating copying, scanning, mailing and duplicating equipment as a dedicated function — absorbed into self-service devices and digital workflows.
What survives
High-volume regulated mail operations (ballots, statements, legal notices) with chain-of-custody requirements.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
BLS projects employment falling from 89,500 (2024) to 74,100 (2034), a -17.2% change.
Automated: Taking, keying and confirming orders by phone, fax and email — replaced by self-service portals, EDI and AI email-to-order parsing.
What survives
Complex configured orders, key-account management, and resolving supply exceptions.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Payroll and timekeeping clerks
Finance
endangeredBLS projects employment falling from 161,100 (2024) to 134,200 (2034), a -16.7% change — a loss of 26,900 jobs.
Automated: Timesheet collection, pay calculation, deduction reconciliation — absorbed by integrated payroll platforms with automated compliance rules.
What survives
Multi-jurisdiction tax compliance, garnishment and benefits edge cases, and audit response.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Prepress technicians and workers
Creative
endangeredBLS projects employment falling from 26,200 (2024) to 22,300 (2034), a -14.6% change.
Automated: Manual typesetting, colour separation, imposition and proofing — automated by desktop publishing and now generative layout tools.
What survives
Colour management for premium print, packaging compliance, and press-side troubleshooting.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Print binding and finishing workers
Media
endangeredBLS projects employment falling from 35,800 (2024) to 30,000 (2034), a -16.1% change.
Automated: Not AI directly — automated finishing lines plus the collapse of print volume as content moved digital. Included as a control case for technology-driven decline.
What survives
Short-run specialty printing, packaging and premium physical goods where craft finishing is the product.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Camera operators, television, video and film
Media
adaptingBLS projects 1% growth 2024–2034 for camera operators (36,400 jobs, about 400 added), noting that consolidation of roles and robotic cameras limit growth. Film and video editors fare better at 4% growth (43,500 jobs). Median pay $68,810 for camera operators.
Automated: Static and repetitive camera work — replaced by robotic camera systems, automated tracking and drone rigs.
What survives
Cinematography as authorship — framing, lens and lighting choices — plus documentary and live event work where the operator must anticipate an unscripted moment.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Craft and fine artists (including illustrators)
Creative
adaptingBLS projects 0% change 2024–2034 (52,000 to 52,100 jobs), with about 4,400 annual openings. Median pay $56,260, but craft artists earn only $38,480 while fine artists including illustrators earn $60,560. The WashU/NYU Upwork study found image-related freelancers lost 3.7% of monthly jobs and 9.4% of monthly earnings after image-generation tools launched.
Automated: Commercial illustration and concept art at the commodity end — book covers, spot illustration, background and asset art — generated from prompts.
What survives
Authorship and provenance, physical original work, gallery and collector markets, and commissions where the buyer is purchasing a specific human's vision.
Window: Freelance effect from late 2022; BLS window 2024–2034
BLS projects 1% growth 2024–2034 (115,800 to 116,500 jobs), noting 'traditional print newspapers and magazines lose ground to other media formats.' Median pay $75,260; about 9,800 annual openings, mostly replacement.
Automated: Line editing, copyediting, proofreading and style enforcement — largely automated by grammar and style AI.
What survives
Commissioning and judgement about what is worth publishing, fact verification, legal risk review, and increasingly the verification of AI-generated copy — a growing category of editorial work.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Freelance copywriters and content writers
Creative
adaptingA study by Xiang Hui and Oren Reshef (WashU Olin) and Luofeng Zhou (NYU) using Upwork data found that after ChatGPT's launch in November 2022, writing-related freelancers saw monthly jobs decline 2% and monthly earnings decline 5.2%. Counterintuitively, more experienced and higher-skilled freelancers lost more than lower-skilled ones — Reshef: 'For higher-quality workers, instead of being protected, you're losing your competitive edge.'
Automated: Volume content — SEO articles, product descriptions, listicles, email and ad copy — the exact briefs that made up the freelance content market.
What survives
Original reporting and interviews, brand voice ownership, subject-matter authority, and accountability for claims. Writers who move up-market into strategy and editing of AI output fare better than those competing on word count.
Window: Measured immediately after November 2022; authors caution these are short-run effects
Graphic designers
Creative
adaptingBLS projects 2% growth 2024–2034 (265,900 to 271,500 jobs), noting 'automated design tools, such as artificial intelligence (AI), may reduce the need for companies to contract with freelance graphic designers.' The WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025 added graphic designers to its fastest-declining list for the first time, specifically attributing it to generative AI. A WashU/NYU study of Upwork found image-related freelancers saw monthly jobs fall 3.7% and monthly earnings fall 9.4% after image-generation tools launched.
Automated: Production design at the low end — social assets, ad variants, simple logos, stock layout work — now generated from prompts, hitting freelance and commodity briefs hardest.
What survives
Brand strategy, art direction, design systems, and client-facing judgement about what should be made at all. About 20,000 annual openings persist. Median pay $61,300, above the $49,500 all-occupations median.
Window: Freelance impact measurable from late 2022; BLS window 2024–2034
Interpreters and translators
Translation
adaptingA CEPR study using American Community Survey and Lightcast data across 696 US local labour markets found each 1 percentage point increase in machine translation usage cut translator employment growth by about 0.7 percentage points — an estimated loss of about 28,000 new translator positions that would otherwise have been created over 2010–2023. Job postings requiring Spanish fell 1.4pp in high-MT-adoption areas, Chinese about 1.3pp, German about 0.8pp. BLS projects only 2% growth 2024–2034 (75,300 to 76,600 jobs).
Automated: Bulk written translation of documents, subtitles and product content — neural machine translation now produces publishable-quality first drafts, converting the job from translation to post-editing.
What survives
BLS notes 'many of these jobs cannot be entirely automated because computers cannot yet produce work comparable to what human translators do in most cases.' Live interpreting, legal and medical certification, literary and marketing transcreation, and low-resource languages remain human. Median pay $59,440.
Window: 2010–2023 for the CEPR employment effect; BLS window 2024–2034
BLS projects 2% growth 2024–2034 (301,400 to 306,500 jobs), attributing the slow growth to 'increased use of productivity-enhancing technology in loan processing.' Median pay $74,180.
Automated: Application intake, document collection and preliminary credit assessment — handled by automated underwriting software that 'produces a loan recommendation based on the applicant's financial status.'
What survives
BLS notes loan officers still review software output before final decisions. Relationship origination, commercial and non-standard lending, and regulatory accountability for adverse-action decisions remain human.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Paralegals and legal assistants
Legal
adaptingBLS projects 0% change 2024–2034 (376,200 jobs in 2024 to 376,800 in 2034), explicitly attributing the flatline to 'advances in technology, including artificial intelligence (AI)' expected to 'make paralegals and legal assistants more efficient at tasks such as conducting research and preparing documents, which may reduce demand for these workers.'
Automated: First-pass document review, legal research memos, discovery culling and routine document assembly — tasks where LLMs now handle volume that used to require billable paralegal hours.
What survives
Client interviewing, court and agency filing procedure, chain-of-custody on evidence, and verification of AI output — a live professional-responsibility issue after sanctions for AI-fabricated citations. About 39,300 annual openings persist.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
BLS projects 2% growth 2024–2034 (151,200 to 154,000 jobs), citing that 'the ease and quality of photos taken by smartphones may reduce the need for professional photographers' and that online stock services are 'possibly dampening demand.' Median pay $42,520, below the $49,500 all-occupations median.
Automated: Stock and generic commercial imagery — now generated on demand, on top of long-running smartphone and stock-library pressure.
What survives
Events that happen once — weddings, news, sports — plus portraiture, product shoots requiring real objects, and any use where provenance of a real photograph matters.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Receptionists
Data & Admin
adaptingBLS projects 0% change 2024–2034, just 300 net new jobs. BLS states: 'Organizations continue to automate or consolidate administrative functions... many organizations use computer software, websites, mobile applications, or other technology to interact with the public or customers.' Median pay $37,230.
Automated: Call answering, visitor check-in and appointment booking — displaced by self-service kiosks, booking apps and AI phone agents.
What survives
Physical security and visitor screening, in-person hospitality, and de-escalation in medical and social-service settings. About 128,500 annual openings persist from turnover.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Travel agents
Customer Support
adaptingBLS projects 2% growth 2024–2034 (65,700 to 67,200 jobs), stating 'the ability of travelers to use online resources to research vacations and book their own trips may limit demand for travel agents.' Median pay $48,450; about 7,100 annual openings.
Automated: Itinerary search, fare comparison and booking — automated first by online travel agencies and now by AI trip planners that assemble complete itineraries.
What survives
BLS notes people 'are expected to continue relying on travel agents for their advice on popular or unique destinations and for their ability to handle travel issues' — the value shifted from booking to crisis handling and curated expertise.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Writers and authors
Creative
adaptingBLS projects 4% growth 2024–2034 from 135,400 jobs (about 4,900 added), citing a shift toward online media and self-publishing. Median pay $72,270, with the lowest decile under $41,080 and the top decile above $133,680.
Automated: Draft generation and formulaic long-form content; the staff-writing tier has compressed faster than the headline number suggests.
What survives
The pay spread signals a barbell: commodity writing collapses toward the bottom decile while named authorship, expertise and voice hold value at the top. AI cannot supply lived experience or take reputational responsibility for a claim.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Accountants and auditors
Finance
resilientBLS projects 5% growth 2024–2034 (1,579,800 to 1,652,600 jobs, 72,800 added), faster than the 3% all-occupations average, with about 124,200 annual openings. BLS: 'Some routine accounting tasks may be automated... The automation of routine tasks, such as data entry, will instead make accountants' advisory and analytical duties more prominent.' Median pay $81,680. Note the contrast: WEF's Future of Jobs Report 2025 lists accountants and auditors among globally declining roles, so the US and global pictures diverge.
Automated: Routine bookkeeping, reconciliation and data entry within the accounting function — but this freed capacity rather than cutting headcount.
What survives
Attestation and audit opinion carry legal liability that cannot be delegated to a model; advisory, tax strategy and controls design are growing.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Data scientists
Data & Admin
resilientBLS projects 34% growth 2024–2034 from 245,900 jobs (about 82,500 added), against a 3% all-occupations average, with about 23,400 annual openings. Median pay $112,590.
Automated: Routine model fitting and exploratory analysis — automated, while demand for the role grew faster than almost any other occupation.
What survives
Problem formulation, data quality judgement, causal reasoning and deciding whether a model should be deployed at all.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Electricians
Skilled Trades
resilientBLS projects 9% growth 2024–2034, much faster than the 3% all-occupations average — about 77,400 new jobs from 818,700, with roughly 81,000 annual openings. Median pay $62,350, above the all-occupations median. Growth drivers include renewable energy and grid integration work.
Automated: Nothing material — the work requires physical dexterity in unstructured, non-repeatable environments.
What survives
Every part of it. Diagnosing faults in existing buildings, code compliance, and licensed liability. Notably, AI data centre buildout is itself a demand driver for this trade.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
HVAC mechanics and installers
Skilled Trades
resilientBLS projects 8% growth 2024–2034, 'much faster than the average for all occupations,' with approximately 40,100 annual openings. Median pay $59,810. Entry typically requires a postsecondary nondegree award of six months to two years plus EPA refrigerant certification.
Automated: Nothing material; diagnostic software assists but installation and repair remain manual.
What survives
Physical installation, on-site diagnosis of systems that were never documented, and regulated refrigerant handling. Also one of the shortest training pipelines among resilient occupations.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers
Transport
resilientBLS projects 4% growth 2024–2034, from 2,235,100 to 2,324,400 jobs (89,300 added), with approximately 237,600 annual openings. Median pay $57,440.
Automated: Nothing at scale yet, despite a decade of autonomous-trucking predictions. BLS's 2024–2034 projection makes no mention of autonomous vehicles affecting employment.
What survives
First and last mile, loading and securing freight, customer interaction, and roadside problem-solving. A second useful counterexample to confident automation forecasts — though Challenger data shows transportation was the second-largest job-cut sector in 2026 (41,748 cuts YTD) for reasons other than autonomy.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Home health and personal care aides
Healthcare
resilientBLS projects 17% growth 2024–2034, from 4,347,700 to 5,087,500 jobs — 739,800 added positions and approximately 765,800 annual openings, the largest of any occupation. Growth is driven by 'the rising number of older people' and the shift of long-term care from institutional to home settings. Median pay $34,900, well below the $49,500 all-occupations median.
Automated: Essentially nothing — demographic demand overwhelms any automation effect.
What survives
Physical caregiving, mobility assistance and companionship in unstructured home environments. The important caveat: this is the largest growth category in the economy and it is also among the lowest paid — resilience does not mean prosperity.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Human resources specialists
Data & Admin
resilientBLS projects 6% growth 2024–2034, faster than the 3% average, from 944,300 to 1,002,700 jobs (58,400 added). Median pay $72,910. Indeed Hiring Lab data shows AI mentions in HR job postings doubled from 4.4% to 8.8% of postings during 2025 — the role is absorbing AI rather than being absorbed by it.
Automated: Resume screening, scheduling and candidate sourcing — automated, but the occupation still grows.
What survives
Employee relations, investigations, compensation judgement and legal compliance — plus new work governing AI use in hiring, which is now regulated in several jurisdictions.
Window: BLS window 2024–2034; Indeed posting data 2025
Market research analysts
Data & Admin
resilientBLS projects 7% growth 2024–2034 (941,700 to 1,004,700 jobs, 63,000 added), with about 87,200 annual openings. Growth is driven by 'increasing use of data and market research across many industries.' Median pay $76,950.
Automated: Survey tabulation, report generation and descriptive statistics — automated, but demand for analysis grew faster than the automation.
What survives
Framing the research question, choosing what to measure, and translating findings into commercial decisions — judgement tasks that expand as the cost of analysis falls.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters
Skilled Trades
resilientBLS projects 4% growth 2024–2034, about 22,700 new jobs from 504,500, with approximately 44,000 annual openings. Median pay $62,970, above both the all-occupations median ($49,500) and the construction trades median ($56,490).
Automated: Nothing material.
What survives
All of it — repair work in existing structures is the definition of a non-repeatable physical task. Entry via 4–5 year apprenticeship with state licensing.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
In 2016 Geoffrey Hinton predicted radiologists would be obsolete within five to ten years. As of 2026, average radiologist salary reached $571,000, up 9% year-on-year; the number of active US radiologists rose about 10% over the last decade; there were 7,469 open radiologist postings in May 2026 with 1,470 open 60+ days; imaging case volume rose 25% from 2018 to early 2025. Hinton has since narrowed his claim to image analysis tasks rather than the profession.
Automated: Image pattern detection — the single most confidently predicted AI replacement in medicine, which did not happen at the occupation level.
What survives
The canonical counterexample: AI absorbed a task (detection) inside a job that also involves clinical correlation, multidisciplinary consultation, procedures and legal responsibility for a diagnosis. Faster reads increased imaging demand rather than reducing headcount.
Window: Prediction made 2016; outcome measured through 2026
Registered nurses
Healthcare
resilientBLS projects 5% growth 2024–2034, above the 3% all-occupations average, from about 3.4 million jobs, with approximately 189,100 job openings projected annually. Median pay $93,600.
Automated: Documentation and charting assistance only; the core work is physical, judgement-based and relational.
What survives
Hands-on patient assessment, procedures, escalation judgement and patient communication. AI reduces charting burden, which increases time available for care rather than reducing nurse demand.
Window: BLS projection window 2024–2034
Software developers, QA analysts and testers
Software
resilientBLS projects 15% growth 2024–2034 for the combined occupation (software developers alone 16%, QA analysts 10%), from 1,895,500 jobs in 2024 with 287,900 positions added and about 129,200 annual openings. BLS attributes demand to 'the continued expansion of software development for artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, and other automation applications.' Median pay $133,080 for developers. Indeed Hiring Lab data shows software development postings rose about 15% since February 2025 while total postings fell 7% — but remain roughly 27.5% below pre-pandemic levels, with 71% of the recovery concentrated in senior roles.
Automated: Boilerplate implementation and test authoring — but at the occupation level AI created more demand than it removed, even as the entry rung was pulled up.
What survives
Architecture, system design, debugging production incidents and requirements negotiation. The occupation is resilient in aggregate but the seniority mix has shifted decisively — the risk is concentrated at the entry level, not across the profession.
Window: BLS window 2024–2034; Indeed posting data February 2025 to mid-2026